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Friday, May 19, 2006

Correction...New Buying Opportunity

With the recent market pullback, many of our energy stocks have seen a dramatic drop in their share prices. The oils have been hit nearly as hard as the uraniums, however it seems that the uranium stocks have experienced more of a downfall as a result to not only being in the energy business but mining as well. All mining stocks seem to have been hard hit recently as well as energy stocks. It seems that CWPC has just today hit its last support level at about $5.90 which we see as very fortunate because its next support can be found at the $5 area. Another stock, which recently hit an all time high as most uraniums have done, is SXRuranium which we think is a screaming buy. The company, on the Toronto Stock Exchange, fell to $9.07 where it seems to have hit its last support level, but like Canwest is about $2 off of its recent highs.

In all fairness we are not really sure what to think as to the news that two more board members were stepping down at Canwest in order for "independent" Directors to step in, but it seems strange. SXRuraniumone is most likely consolidating at these levels which should be healthy for the stock as it accumulates 'new money' as it embarks on its new journey (which we believe will be up). It seems that all of the uranium stocks have fallen to their support levels, with Cameco hitting a very strong one in the $37 area. We see this as the speculative money being chased out of investments that the risk could no longer be tolerated or "insured" through their margin.

With many of the companies that we have pointed out now below or close to even at this point, we see this as a tremendous buying opportunity. One in which we can now get into those companies that we previously did not have the opportunity to purchase at a decent price or could not afford at the time. Personally we are looking at SXR on the Toronto as our play during this pull-back but we are seriously considering a move into Canwest, as $2 to the upside (back to its old high areas) is worth more on a percentage basis than SXR moving up $2. However now is the time to diversify in the energy sector and for those of us with plenty of shares of Canwest it is probably wiser to not be greedy and invest in a new company which will shortly be producing from their new mine (SXR). We would also bless a move into PDN.to (Paladin) right now even though its move to the downside has been rather kinder to its shareholders than others'. We still see value from this company because it will be producing about 6 million pounds of Uranium within 3 years and at this price we see that as very attractive.

There is an old saying which we are reminded of as we write this and that is, "Bull markets climb a wall of worry." Well there seemed to be a lack of worry as these stocks were moving strongly to the upside, but after this correction it seems that we now have many stocks fairly valued with the potential for some quick short term profits. We also now have some "worry" in the market regarding these stocks which may keep some people on the sideline in order to buy only at higher prices. Investors are rewarded for taking risks, more so for taking calculated risks, and at this point we believe that the uraniums have found an area to settle at, consolidate, and then hopefully make a move to the upside as they had previously done for nearly 2 months. We see this morning as the perfect time to start our accumulation, and this shall only be halted after a 10-15% move upwards.

3 Comments:

  • At 3:48 PM, Blogger John Polomny said…

    In reference to the CanWest board shakeup. I understand from Doug Casey's site that there was some kind of shickey mickey going on with some of the directors and some of their pas dealings. Evidentily there is a rumor that a Forbes magazine reporter was sniffing around. I will report if I hear anything else. Disclosure, I own can West and am a long term bull

     
  • At 1:13 PM, Blogger John Polomny said…

    This from the email I got:

    Last Friday we received a call from a reporter from Forbes working on a story that, reading between the lines, seems to question whether or not the CanWest concession is, in fact, a legitimate oil sands play.

    The nub of the issue, as we interpret it, has to do with one of the early investors in the company, back when it was early stage with a dream and a prayer of finding bitumen in Saskatchewan. (An entity owned by us, DCDG, LLC., was also an investor at that stage, but only with an inconsequential position.

    While it is only conjecture at this point, our interpretation is that Forbes is about to do one of its famous attack pieces on this particular financier (who has nothing to do with the day to day running of CanWest, by the way) and by extension CanWest. Looking at today’s price action, we can only surmise that word of the pending article is getting around and those in know are trying to get out while the getting is good. In the same way that CWPC has risen in near meteoric fashion, it now looks set to come off substantially. Remember, the reverse side of a hockey stick is just as steep as the front.

    After listening to the reporter, we believe his initial understanding of the CanWest property is a misunderstanding. Starting with the fact that the financier in question is simply just another investor in the company, and has nothing to do with its management. While many reporters write their stories in their minds before setting a word to paper, then ignore everything except confirming facts – and that well may be the case here – our sense is that this particular reporter is doing his homework. Hopefully between now and press time he’ll get the data he needs to clear up his concerns. If not, and if CWPC is painted with the same negative brush as the companies actually managed by this individual, then the fall-off in CWPC that began today could continue until after the full impact of the article is felt, which will be after it hits the stands in a week or so.

    While the prudent thing to do is to pull your original investment out of the stock, and that is a perfectly reasonable thing to do, after double-checking our original work, we remain confident in the company’s new management team and the merits of its underlying assets. As a result, we’re holding on to our shares, and will look upon any continued fall out from the Forbes article to create an excellent speculative opportunity for a second bite at the apple.

    Let me stress again that this is still largely in the realm of conjecture. At press time the reporter was still very much in research mode, so there is a good chance he’ll discover the CanWest story, as attention-grabbing as it has been, is completely legitimate and will leave it out of his broader story. In which case, we would expect to the stock to rebound, high and fast.

     
  • At 1:03 PM, Blogger -theinvestar said…

    Well I have heard about a possible Forbes article that will be negative for certain uranium companies and their directors as well as showing that Dines is somehow "in bed with them". I find it hard to believe that they have done anything wrong in promoting their companies through Dines (if that is what they did) becuase it is standard for companies to pay to have their company touted to investors by experts. Now I had not heard that the Forbes reporter was sniffing around CanWest, but I imagine if they do their homework they will see that its real (my opinion). Also I did not see where you could find that the company (CWPC) was fulfilling those criterion for inclusion into the AMEX Gus, because to our knowledge (although it was mentioned in the report) they have already fulfilled the independent director requirement through their last two appointments. That is the story that IR was pitching a few months ago, but we have not talked to them in some time, so the circumstances may have changed.

    -theinvestar

     

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